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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to BUF 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 23 for 8 yards (83-K.Granson, 85-A.Ogletree).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 26, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model