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Buffalo Bills

8-2 HC Sean McDermott
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Indianapolis Colts

4-6 HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2024-11-10 · 13:00 ET Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

BUF
66.1%
IND
33.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.176 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Joe Flacco (IND) -0.062 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.230 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • BUF defense: -0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BUF 25 18–32
–
IND 19 12–26
Projected margin: BUF by 6 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 10

BUF

Keon Coleman WR Out Wrist
Amari Cooper WR Questionable Wrist
Reggie Gilliam FB Questionable Hip
Baylon Spector LB Questionable Calf

IND

Michael Pittman WR Out Back

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 30
–
IND 20

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:24 TD BUF (12:24) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 7-Ta.Johnson at IND 23. 7-Ta.Johnson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – IND 0
  • Q1 05:36 FG BUF (5:36) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 10 – IND 0
  • Q1 03:34 FG IND (3:34) 7-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. BUF 10 – IND 3
  • Q2 09:26 TD IND (9:26) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 31-T.Goodson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 10 – IND 9
  • Q2 06:35 FG IND (6:35) 7-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. BUF 10 – IND 13
  • Q2 02:21 TD BUF (2:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-79-S.Brown, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. BUF 16 – IND 13
  • Q2 00:02 FG BUF (:02) 2-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 20 – IND 13
  • Q4 11:01 FG BUF (11:01) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 23 – IND 13
  • Q4 03:09 TD BUF (3:09) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 29 – IND 13
  • Q4 00:08 TD IND (:08) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 14-A.Pierce for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 30 – IND 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (12:32) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to IND 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 64%

    (9:53) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to BUF 37 for 2 yards (31-R.Douglas; 50-G.Rousseau).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (5:36) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (3:34) 7-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 84%

    (:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 1-C.Samuel (44-Z.Franklin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (6:35) 7-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:18) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to BUF 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to BUF 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 23 for 8 yards (83-K.Granson, 85-A.Ogletree).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75%

    (11:07) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen up the middle to BUF 35 for 3 yards (90-G.Stewart).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:39) 8-S.Martin punts 61 yards to IND 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-39-C.Lewis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 92%

    (2:51) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at BUF 30 for -10 yards (71-Q.Jefferson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 95%

    (13:12) 17-J.Allen up the middle to IND 10 for 5 yards (99-D.Buckner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (11:01) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.78 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 82%

    (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 1-J.Downs to BUF 15 for 15 yards (24-C.Bishop).

    See the full breakdown →