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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 68

Buffalo Bills 20 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(11:07) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen up the middle to BUF 35 for 3 yards (90-G.Stewart).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.41 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model