4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 20

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(2:51) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at BUF 30 for -10 yards (71-Q.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.88 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 20, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model