4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 39

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to BUF 37 for 2 yards (31-R.Douglas; 50-G.Rousseau).

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.69 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model