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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 11

Buffalo Bills 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.09 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP