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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 18

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.15 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 18, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model