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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2024-11-10 · 13:00 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

DEN
28.6%
KC
71.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.142 vs Bo Nix (DEN) -0.114 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: -0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 18
–
KC 24
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

DEN

Delarrin Turner-Yell S Out Knee
Drew Sanders LB Out Achilles
Luke Wattenberg C Questionable Ankle

KC

JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Out Hamstring
Tershawn Wharton DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 14
–
KC 16

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:23 TD DEN (14:23) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 17-D.Vele for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – KC 0
  • Q2 09:06 FG KC (9:06) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. DEN 7 – KC 3
  • Q2 06:45 TD DEN (6:45) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – KC 3
  • Q2 01:47 TD KC (1:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 14 – KC 9
  • Q3 03:54 FG KC (3:54) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. DEN 14 – KC 13
  • Q4 05:59 FG KC (5:59) 7-H.Butker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. DEN 14 – KC 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to KC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 21 for 9 yards (52-J.Elliss).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 14 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 20%

    (4:07) 14-M.Araiza punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 93%

    (9:06) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (1:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 16 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:34) 14-M.Araiza punts 64 yards to DEN 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims to DEN 43 for 28 yards (48-C.Christiansen).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:15) 9-R.Dixon punts 30 yards to KC 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (4:46) 29-K.Hunt left guard to DEN 10 for 2 yards (55-C.Barton).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (3:54) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 26%

    (12:28) 14-M.Araiza punts 41 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 12 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to DEN 46, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-1-T.Smith.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (5:59) 7-H.Butker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%

    (:01) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-L.Chenal), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by KC-2-J.Williams at KC 24.