Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 55

Denver Broncos 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(11:15) 9-R.Dixon punts 30 yards to KC 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.70 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 55, worth -3.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model