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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 10

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 10, worth +0.53 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model