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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 50

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 14-M.Araiza punts 41 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.07 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model