Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 93

Denver Broncos 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

(10:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to DEN 46, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-1-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -3.36 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.61 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 93, worth -5.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model