Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 55

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(8:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.41 EP
71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -2.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model