Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 79

Detroit Lions 7 – Houston Texans 16

(1:06) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to HOU 19, Center-49-H.Hatten. 82-S.Sims to HOU 34 for 15 yards (47-E.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.96 EP
58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model