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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2024-11-10 · 20:20 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

DET
60.0%
HOU
40.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Jared Goff (DET): +0.209 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • HOU defense: -0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • HOU on 3 more days rest than DET
  • DET defense: -0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 25
–
HOU 22
Projected margin: DET by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

DET

Taylor Decker T Out Shoulder
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Out Neck
Malcolm Rodriguez LB Out Ankle
Brodric Martin DT Out Knee
Ifeatu Melifonwu S Out Ankle
Emmanuel Moseley CB Out Pectoral
Za'Darius Smith DE Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

HOU

Will Anderson DE Out Ankle
Dameon Pierce RB Out Groin
Folorunso Fatukasi DT Questionable Groin
Jake Hansen LB Questionable Ankle
Jerry Hughes DE Questionable Hip
Jeff Okudah CB Questionable Quadricep
Nico Collins WR Questionable Hamstring
Tank Dell WR Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 26
–
HOU 23

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:50 TD HOU (7:50) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – HOU 6
  • Q1 02:12 FG HOU (2:12) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. DET 0 – HOU 10
  • Q2 10:58 TD DET (10:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 87-S.LaPorta for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – HOU 10
  • Q2 08:30 FG HOU (8:30) 15-K.Fairbairn 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. DET 7 – HOU 13
  • Q2 04:10 FG HOU (4:10) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. DET 7 – HOU 16
  • Q2 00:16 TD HOU (:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 8-J.Metchie for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – HOU 22
  • Q3 11:36 TD DET (11:36) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – HOU 23
  • Q4 11:43 TD DET (11:43) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 19 – HOU 23
  • Q4 05:06 FG DET (5:06) 39-J.Bates 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 23 – HOU 23
  • Q4 00:04 FG DET (:04) 39-J.Bates 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 26 – HOU 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:31) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to HOU 26, Center-49-H.Hatten. 82-S.Sims to HOU 43 for 17 yards (33-S.Vaki).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%

    (2:12) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 13 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 66%

    (8:30) 15-K.Fairbairn 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (4:10) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:24) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to HOU 22, Center-49-H.Hatten. 82-S.Sims to HOU 33 for 11 yards (33-S.Vaki).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 8 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:06) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to HOU 19, Center-49-H.Hatten. 82-S.Sims to HOU 34 for 15 yards (47-E.Turner).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:55) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to DET 42, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-K.Raymond to HOU 44 for 14 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 15 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:04) 6-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to DET 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 38 for 20 yards (13-D.Phillips). PENALTY on DET-51-B.Niemann, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 20.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 34%

    (:31) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to HOU 9, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:57) 6-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to DET 36, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. ** Injury Update: DET-11-K.Raymond has returned to the game.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 11 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 61%

    (5:06) 39-J.Bates 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 40 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 61%

    (1:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.