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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 51

Detroit Lions 13 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(:31) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to HOU 9, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.85 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP