Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 90

Houston Texans 23 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 6-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to DET 36, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. ** Injury Update: DET-11-K.Raymond has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.78 EP
62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 90, worth -5.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model