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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 40

Detroit Lions 20 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 39-J.Bates 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.02 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model