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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 40

Houston Texans 23 – Detroit Lions 23

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.36 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model