Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 66

Detroit Lions 0 – Houston Texans 7

(6:31) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to HOU 26, Center-49-H.Hatten. 82-S.Sims to HOU 43 for 17 yards (33-S.Vaki).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.71 EP
54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model