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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 16

Houston Texans 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 16, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model