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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 60

Miami Dolphins 10 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to LA 9, Center-46-T.Addington, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.54 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 19, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model