4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Monday 2024-11-11 · 20:15 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

MIA
37.5%
LA
62.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA defense: +0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 22
–
LA 25
Projected margin: LA by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

MIA

Austin Jackson T Out Knee
Tyreek Hill WR Questionable Wrist
River Cracraft WR Questionable Shoulder
Patrick McMorris S Questionable Calf
Jevon Holland S Questionable Hand
Alec Ingold FB Questionable Calf

LA

Neville Gallimore DT Out Shoulder
Rob Havenstein T Out Ankle
Kamren Curl S Questionable Knee
Kevin Dotson G Questionable Ankle
Christian Rozeboom LB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 23
–
LA 15

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:08 TD MIA (12:08) 83-M.Washington right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – LA 0
  • Q2 14:12 FG MIA (14:12) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 10 – LA 0
  • Q2 05:50 FG LA (5:50) 16-J.Karty 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. MIA 10 – LA 3
  • Q2 00:03 FG LA (:03) 16-J.Karty 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. MIA 10 – LA 6
  • Q3 05:35 TD MIA (5:35) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 16 – LA 6
  • Q4 15:00 FG LA (15:00) 16-J.Karty 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. MIA 17 – LA 9
  • Q4 09:11 FG MIA (9:11) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 20 – LA 9
  • Q4 06:34 FG LA (6:34) 16-J.Karty 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. MIA 20 – LA 12
  • Q4 02:43 FG MIA (2:43) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 23 – LA 12
  • Q4 00:42 FG LA (:42) 16-J.Karty 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. MIA 23 – LA 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (10:03) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to MIA 16, Center-47-A.Ward. 83-M.Washington ran ob at MIA 18 for 2 yards.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 10 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:45) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to LA 34, Center-46-T.Addington, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-33-S.Neal, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 34.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 19 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:18) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to MIA 9, Center-47-A.Ward. 83-M.Washington to MIA 16 for 7 yards (35-J.Hummel).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:20) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to LA 33, Center-46-T.Addington, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 78%

    (14:12) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 12 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:10) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to MIA 24, Center-47-A.Ward. 83-M.Washington pushed ob at MIA 36 for 12 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 35-J.Hummel).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 95%

    (5:50) 16-J.Karty 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:20) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to LA 9, Center-46-T.Addington, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 68%

    (:03) 16-J.Karty 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 19 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 73%

    (15:00) 16-J.Karty 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (9:11) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (6:34) 16-J.Karty 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 80%

    (2:43) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.