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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 19 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 16-J.Karty 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.88 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.53 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model