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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 19

Miami Dolphins 17 – Los Angeles Rams 9

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.87 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 19, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model