Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 19 at the 60

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

(8:18) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to MIA 9, Center-47-A.Ward. 83-M.Washington to MIA 16 for 7 yards (35-J.Hummel).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.40 EP
75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model