Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(4:20) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to LA 33, Center-46-T.Addington, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.76 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 68, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model