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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 32

Miami Dolphins 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.89 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP