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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to MIN 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model