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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2024-11-10 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

MIN
58.1%
JAX
41.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX defense: +0.158 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Mac Jones (JAX): -0.138 EPA/dropback in prior starts (JAX starting Mac Jones in place of Trevor Lawrence)
  • MIN offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 25
–
JAX 21
Projected margin: MIN by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

MIN

Blake Cashman LB Questionable Toe
Ivan Pace LB Questionable Knee
Gabriel Murphy DE Questionable Knee

JAX

Ezra Cleveland G Out Ankle
Maason Smith DT Out Ankle
Devin Duvernay WR Questionable Hamstring
Keilan Robinson RB Questionable Toe
Andrew Wingard S Questionable Knee
Gabe Davis WR Questionable Shoulder
D'Ernest Johnson RB Questionable Hamstring
Trevor Lawrence QB Questionable Left Shoulder
Brian Thomas WR Questionable Chest
Daniel Thomas S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 12
–
JAX 7

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:00 FG MIN (8:00) 96-J.Romo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 3 – JAX 0
  • Q1 03:48 TD JAX (3:48) 10-M.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – JAX 6
  • Q3 01:45 FG MIN (1:45) 96-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 6 – JAX 7
  • Q4 07:17 FG MIN (7:17) 96-J.Romo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 9 – JAX 7
  • Q4 04:26 FG MIN (4:26) 96-J.Romo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 12 – JAX 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 84%

    (8:00) 96-J.Romo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to MIN 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 14 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:49) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to MIN 18, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65%

    (1:24) 17-R.Wright punts 43 yards to JAX 31, Center-47-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to MIN 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

    (1:45) 96-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to MIN 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 4-B.Powell to MIN 16 for 9 yards (42-A.Wingard).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 95%

    (8:56) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to JAX 14 for 1 yard (44-T.Walker; 23-F.Oluokun).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (7:17) 96-J.Romo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (4:26) 96-J.Romo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 9 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 40%

    (2:49) 17-R.Wright punts 29 yards to JAX 17, Center-47-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.