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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 14

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 96-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.80 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model