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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 15

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(8:56) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to JAX 14 for 1 yard (44-T.Walker; 23-F.Oluokun).

The Three Options

GO +3.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.00 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 15, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model