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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 16

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 96-J.Romo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.81 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 16, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model