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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 11

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 96-J.Romo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.75 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model