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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 46

Minnesota Vikings 12 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 17-R.Wright punts 29 yards to JAX 17, Center-47-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.48 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model