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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 27

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 96-J.Romo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.45 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 27, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model