Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 85

New England Patriots 3 – Chicago Bears 0

(12:04) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to CHI 35, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.49 EP
61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 85, worth -5.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model