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New England Patriots

HC Jerod Mayo
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
Sunday 2024-11-10 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

NE
27.6%
CHI
72.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.164 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to CHI: Caleb Williams (CHI) -0.100 vs Drake Maye (NE) -0.148 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 17
–
CHI 25
Projected margin: CHI by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NE

Yannick Ngakoue DE Out Not injury related - other
Kyle Dugger S Out Ankle
Christian Elliss LB Out Abdomen
Alex Austin CB Questionable Ankle
Daniel Ekuale DT Questionable Abdomen
Michael Jordan G Questionable Ankle
Layden Robinson G Questionable Ankle
Vederian Lowe T Questionable Shoulder
Marte Mapu S Questionable Neck
Jaquelin Roy DT Questionable Neck

CHI

Kiran Amegadjie T Out Calf
Jaquan Brisker S Out Concussion
Braxton Jones T Out Knee
Darnell Wright T Out Knee
Darrell Taylor DE Questionable Knee
Ryan Bates C Questionable Shoulder
Noah Sewell LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 19
–
CHI 3

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:23 FG NE (6:23) 13-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 3 – CHI 0
  • Q2 07:21 FG CHI (7:21) 8-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. NE 3 – CHI 3
  • Q2 01:51 TD NE (1:51) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 1-J.Polk for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – CHI 3
  • Q2 00:01 FG NE (:01) 13-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 13 – CHI 3
  • Q4 07:34 FG NE (7:34) 13-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 16 – CHI 3
  • Q4 02:21 FG NE (2:21) 13-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 19 – CHI 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to CHI 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Carter to NE 47 for 38 yards (52-C.Jacobs).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 38%

    (11:54) 19-T.Taylor punts 13 yards to NE 34, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-23-R.Johnson.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 93%

    (7:59) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right guard to CHI 16 for 2 yards (55-J.Martin, 53-T.Edwards).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (6:23) 13-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 15 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 59%

    (1:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 38%

    (13:37) 19-T.Taylor punts 35 yards to NE 12, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:04) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to CHI 35, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 67%

    (10:11) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left guard to NE 31 for 5 yards (98-J.Pharms). CHI-76-T.Jenkins was injured during the play.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 11 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (7:21) 8-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 14 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:47) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to NE 16, Center-46-S.Daly. 25-M.Jones to NE 40 for 24 yards (30-T.Moore, 46-S.Daly).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 31%

    (12:20) 19-T.Taylor punts 36 yards to NE 14, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-22-E.Hicks.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:59) 17-B.Baringer punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 16 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:57) 19-T.Taylor punts 52 yards to NE 21, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:50) 17-B.Baringer punts 75 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:20) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to NE 26, Center-46-S.Daly. 25-M.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 28. 25-M.Jones to NE 38 for 10 yards (20-T.Homer).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:16) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to CHI 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-29-I.Bolden.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 16 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:46) 19-T.Taylor punts 62 yards to NE 35, Center-46-S.Daly. 25-M.Jones to NE 46 for 11 yards (45-A.Ogbongbemiga).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (7:34) 13-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (6:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze to CHI 46 for 4 yards (48-J.Tavai) [44-J.Giles-Harris].

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen (25-M.Jones) [99-K.White].

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 95%

    (2:21) 13-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 20 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 25%

    (:40) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to CHI 48 for 8 yards (22-M.Wilson).