4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 36

Chicago Bears 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(10:11) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left guard to NE 31 for 5 yards (98-J.Pharms). CHI-76-T.Jenkins was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.93 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model