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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 64

New England Patriots 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to CHI 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Carter to NE 47 for 38 yards (52-C.Jacobs).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 64, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 22, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model