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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 64

Chicago Bears 3 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(:47) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to NE 16, Center-46-S.Daly. 25-M.Jones to NE 40 for 24 yards (30-T.Moore, 46-S.Daly).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.94 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -2.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 22, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model