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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 47

Chicago Bears 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 19-T.Taylor punts 13 yards to NE 34, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-23-R.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.93 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model