Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 61

New England Patriots 13 – Chicago Bears 3

(7:59) 17-B.Baringer punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.56 EP
66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 61, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model