Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 59

New England Patriots 13 – Chicago Bears 3

(:16) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to CHI 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-29-I.Bolden.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.24 EP
64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 59, worth -3.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model