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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 15

New England Patriots 16 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 13-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +3.19 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 15, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.12 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model