4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 18

New England Patriots 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(7:59) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right guard to CHI 16 for 2 yards (55-J.Martin, 53-T.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.77 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 18, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.19 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 28, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model