Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 20 at the 60

Chicago Bears 3 – New England Patriots 19

(:40) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to CHI 48 for 8 yards (22-M.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP

What Happened

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +0.91 EP
75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -0.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP