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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 12

New England Patriots 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 13-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.49 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.22 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model