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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 75

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to PHI 16, Center-44-T.Sieg. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 23 for 7 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.66 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 32, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model