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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2024-11-10 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

PHI
65.8%
DAL
34.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.135 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • DAL offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Cooper Rush (DAL): -0.038 EPA/dropback in prior starts (DAL starting Cooper Rush in place of Dak Prescott)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

PHI 27
–
DAL 19
Projected margin: PHI by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

PHI

Ben VanSumeren LB Questionable Concussion

DAL

Daron Bland CB Out Foot
Dak Prescott QB Out Hamstring
Juanyeh Thomas S Out Concussion
Trevon Diggs CB Questionable Calf
Nick Vigil LB Questionable Foot
Tyler Guyton T Questionable Neck
Eric Kendricks LB Questionable Shoulder
Micah Parsons DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 34
–
DAL 6

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:10 TD PHI (7:10) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – DAL 0
  • Q1 03:14 FG DAL (3:14) 17-B.Aubrey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PHI 7 – DAL 3
  • Q2 01:51 FG DAL (1:51) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PHI 7 – DAL 6
  • Q2 00:28 TD PHI (:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – DAL 6
  • Q3 09:00 TD PHI (9:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 89-J.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – DAL 6
  • Q3 03:02 TD PHI (3:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 27 – DAL 6
  • Q4 14:54 FG PHI (14:54) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 31 – DAL 6
  • Q4 10:36 FG PHI (10:36) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 34 – DAL 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:43) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to PHI 30, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 84%

    (3:14) 17-B.Aubrey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:59) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to PHI 16, Center-44-T.Sieg. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 23 for 7 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 17 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:29) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-49-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 36%

    (6:33) (No Huddle) 10-C.Rush up the middle to PHI 48 for 2 yards (97-M.Ojomo).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (1:51) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:09) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to PHI 13, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-16-J.Moreno-Cropper.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:56) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to DAL 11, Center-49-R.Lovato, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:56) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to PHI 32, Center-44-T.Sieg. 33-C.DeJean ran ob at DAL 37 for 31 yards (5-B.Anger).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:25) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to PHI 12, Center-44-T.Sieg. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 17 for 5 yards (18-D.Clark).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 92%

    (14:54) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-T.Lance pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 42 for 6 yards (34-I.Rodgers) [98-J.Carter].

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 92%

    (10:36) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (8:17) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to DAL 21, Center-49-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:11) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to PHI 21, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 70%

    (:38) 7-K.Pickett up the middle to DAL 35 for 1 yard (92-C.Watkins).